DAX Downside Bias Intact

A bounce and a stall on Wednesday for the German DAX Futurefrom above 12263.5 resistance but capped by the better barriers in the 12328/357 area, with the setback from 12303 leaving negative pressures from last Fridays spike up and failure from just below the recent cycle peak at 12425.5 (and the May cycle high at 12442), to keep the bias to the downside Thursday.

Furthermore, the recent Euro strength, particularlyEURUSD is also weighing on the DAX,as is weakness across other European equity averages, like theEURO STOXX 50 .

The mid-June surge above key 12301 saw an intermediate-term bull trend established.

For Today:

We see a downside bias for 12155.5; break here opens risk down to 12050 and 12005/000.

But above 12303 opens risk up to the 12328/357 area, maybe towards the critical 12425.5/442 peaks.

Intermediate-term Outlook - Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 12443.

Higher targets would be 12586 and 12873.

What Changes This? Below 11969.5 shifts the intermediate-term outlook back to neutral; through 11882.5 is needed for an intermediate-term bear theme.

4 Hour DAX Future Chart