AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market 3 to 4 Higher to Begin Trading

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher this morning. They were 6 to 8 cents lower on Friday. July options expired with July futures down 2.37% last week. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec funds in corn futures and options added another 32,303 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 143,515 contracts. Total US export commitments for 18/19 are now 87% of USDA’s export projection, vs. the 99% average. Accumulated exports are in line with the normal pace at 75%, but unshipped sales are lagging. With US FOB prices at such a large premium, it will be difficult to see old crop bookings pick up in the fourth quarter. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs the Argentine corn harvest at 44.2% complete, lagging the 50.3% average pace. Trade ideas for NASS planting progress tonight are 98-99%, with intentions shrinking and thus boosting the percentage.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeas Regain Half of Friday Losses Overnight

Soybean futures are 5 to 6 cents higher today following losses of 12 to 13 1/2 cents in most contracts on Friday, as July closed the week up 0.67%. Soymeal was down $7.40/ton on Friday and 2.44% lower last week. Bean oil was 15 points lower Friday but rose 3.01% for the week. Money managers in soybean futures and options trimmed their net short position by 35,848 contracts as of 6/18 to -55,307 contracts according to Commitment of Traders data. Old crop soybean export commitments are 103% of the USDA export projection with the typical pace at 100%. There is still a large quantity of unshipped sales (11.01 MMT), with shipments at 79% of the USDA vs the average of 90% at this point. Of the total outstanding sales 6.01 MMT have been booked by Chinese government buyers with just 2 1/2 months left in the MY to ship. Trade ideas for soybean planting progress are in the 86-89% range, with the 5 year average for this week at 95%.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Higher, Led by KC HRW

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher this morning, with KC HRW in the lead. They closed Friday with CBT and MPLS contracts steady to 2 1/4 cents lower, as nearby MPLS was down 4.84% this week and CBT 2.32% lower. KC was down 3 to 8 cents on Friday, losing 5% on the week. That brought the CBT/KC spread out to a huge 73 1/2 cents, premium to SRW. It relaxed a few cents in Sunday night trading. Traders appear to be expecting improved condition ratings for both winter wheat and spring wheat tonight. Southern Plains sources are reporting excellent HRW yields, although with low protein. Commitment of Traders data showed specs in CBT wheat futures and options adding 20,064 contracts to their net long position at 22,713 by Tuesday. They trimmed 2,880 contracts from their net short position in KC to -20,744 contracts. The KC wheat/corn nearby spread is now 10 1/4 cents, making a ration change to wheat look very attractive (depending on local basis and HRW availability).

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Deals with Low Beef Stocks, Lots of Cattle

Live cattle futures were down 40 cents to $1.725 on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were $1.025 to $1.325 lower. Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report indicated June 1 on feed numbers up 1.62% from last year at 11.74 million head. That was the largest June 1 inventory since 1996. May placements were down 2.8% yr/yr, with marketings up 0.68%. The Cold Storage report showed frozen beef stocks of 403.552 million lbs at the end of May, down 6.2% from April and a 8.69% drop from a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index was down 6 cents to $131.43 on June 20. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 90 cents at $219.82 with Select boxes $1.93 lower @ $199.55. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 662,000 head. That was 4,000 head larger than the same point last year and down 3,000 from the previous week. Cash trade of $110 was reported in most regions on Thursday, down $1-2 from last week, with dressed sales of $180-181 in the north.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Trying to Find A Home for Pork

Lean Hog futures saw limit losses in the front months out to Oct on Friday, with other back months sharply lower. July was down 6.27% this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 6 cents from the previous day @ $79.55 on June 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 71 cents on Friday afternoon at $76.73. The national average base hog was 69 cents lower at $74.03 per hundred pounds on Friday. This week’s estimated FI hog slaughter is 2.449 million head through Saturday. That was up 18,000 from the previous week and well above the same week in 2018. Pork Stocks at the end of May totaled 628.660 million lbs, 1.16% larger than April and 0.79% above last year. Belly stocks were up 4.7% from 2018 at 64.122 million lbs.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Rebounds Overnight

Cotton futures are trading up to 160 higher in the July contract this morning, while the other months are 15 to 65 higher. July fell another 202 points Friday, dropping 7.2% for the week. Other contracts were 37 to 77 points lower on Friday. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed spec traders adding 144 contracts to their net short position of 30,385 contracts as of Tuesday. Total upland cotton export commitments are now 110% of USDA’s projection, compared to the 104% average, as shipments are behind normal pace (87%) at 80%. The Cotlook A index for June 20 was up 40 points from the previous day to 77.90 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday, up 17 points from the previous week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353